Posts Tagged ‘economy’
Wednesday, March 17th, 2010
The Atlantic’s Chris Good says that it is:
Gallup released findings today on economic confidence by state, and it appears anxiety doesn’t give a clear partisan edge one way or the other.
Conventional wisdom says that an improved, or improving, economy is good for President Obama and Democrats, while economic anxiety is bad for the president’s party. Of the 10 states with the highest confidence ratings, five voted for Obama in ‘08 and five voted for John McCain; of the 10 states with the least confidence in the economy, six voted for Obama and four for McCain.
Five minutes later, the commenter “jennis psycho” said:
Your thesis does not follow from the data you cite.
And jennis psycho is correct. Good falls prey to our old friend, the ecological fallacy.
Better data is actually sitting immediately to the right of Good’s blog post: the ABC/WP consumer confidence index. You click on that link, then you click on the pdf in the ABC story.
Here is the consumer confidence rating of the three partisan groups (no word on how independent leaners were classified, but I am guessing they were classified as independents):
Republicans: -46
Democrats: -51
Independents: -49
So the difference here are small — especially compared to the differences across income groups, where consumer confidence ranges from -75 among those making $15,000 or less to -6 among those making $100,000 or more. It appears that a lack of consumer confidence is bipartisan.
But the most recent numbers obscure an important trend that indicates partisanship is at work. If you compare Democrats now to one year ago, their consumer confidence has improved by 10 points. But Republicans’ confidence has declined by 12 points. A year ago, Democrats were 27 points “less confident” than Republicans. Now they are 5 points less confident. Independents, meanwhile, are virtually unchanged.
A while back, Andy and I wrote up this basic finding and a number of others under the heading “Red and Blue Economies. The broader point is this. Even if Republican and Democrats currently have similar views of the economy — “bipartisanship,” in Good’s terminology — partisan bias may still be at work.
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Sunday, May 10th, 2009
Living A Stress Free Life Requires Only Three Ingredients
Many of us are stressed beyond belief, but we can’t figure out why. And, looking at the retail sales of anxiety medications and over the counter drugs, we’re living in one of the most stress filled times in human history. It could be the fear that we’re losing our retirement money in the tanking stock market. Or possibly it’s the fact that one fifth of the job force where we work has been let go and we think there’s a good chance that we might be next. Or maybe it’s just wondering how we can possibly ignore the negative influences all around us and raise our children in a moral environment. These things, and more, are slowly starting to wear us down and fray our nerves to the point where we are desperately looking for solutions to take some of the stress out of our lives.
One of the popular ways to deal with stress is to do what it takes to get just three things in life. The main reason that many people are feeling stressed out is a sense that they’ve lost control over their lives. It’s easy to be relaxed and stress free when you’re in control. When you have money, health, and security – you’re in control, and relaxed.
Money
It’s no secret that money is the grease that makes modern society work. With enough money, you’re able to move your family to a respectable neighborhood, and not have to worry about crime or security. With enough money, you don’t have to worry about health care. You’ll have a nice health insurance policy, go to the best doctors, and generally have access to the best possible health care. But, in a time like this, when people are having trouble finding jobs, how can you be sure that you have all the money you need? The answer is, if you depend on others, then you can’t. If you want to have the money necessary to give you the stress free life that you crave, you have to take control of your livelihood outside of your employer’s hand. Doing that takes planning. And by planning, you’ll be able to decide if you need to go to school to get more skills, if you need to network to get more money making opportunities, or if you should start your own business.
Health
Life is imply not much fun without health. When you’re sick, it’s stressful to your mind, it puts stress on your body, and it can be financially draining as well. There’s no way that any of us can guarantee ourselves an injury and illness free existence. But what we can do is to control the foods we eat and how we take care of ourselves. Researchers estimate that many of the catastrophic diseases that shorten our lifespans – heart disease, cancer, strokes, hypertension, diabetes – are largely triggered by lifestyle and food choices.
Security
From the time we are babies, we’re all looking for security. Our cities, suburbs, and towns employ police forces to make them secure We have soldiers to make our country secure. And we have building guards to make our homes and offices secure. And as a result, we’re less stressful.
If you have these three things – money, health, and security – no matter how you get them, you’re guaranteed to live a pretty stress free existence.
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Thursday, April 30th, 2009
There’s yet another downside to the slipping economy, it’s making many people sick.
That’s according to an online survey, which found one in five employees in the U.S. face mental health problems because they’re worried about losing their jobs.
Employment agency Adecco USA, which conducted the survey, says the best thing an employer can do to to curb workplace anxiety is be honest with employees about how the company is handling the recession.
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Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009
How Are You Coping?
Most of the country’s economic news gets grimmer everyday. First timers applying for unemployment insurance rose to 654,000 this week. The net worth of American household’s fell in the last quarter by 9%, the worst since records started being kept. In Monterey County, the foreclosure rate in February climbed 56% from last year.
So today we ask, how are you holding up? How are you coping with this economy?
Psychologist are actually coining the phrase recession anxiety. It’s the stress that many people across the country are feeling. Tonight we talked to a man right here on the Central Coast who poured his heart and soul into his restaurant in Salinas. But now he and his wife are in financial straits and struggling to keep their dream alive.
“It’s supposed to be a dream but now it’s a nightmare,” Rod Daquioag works two jobs, 16 hours a day. Service technician by day, restaurant owner by night. ” I do everything. I can be a dish washer I could be a cook, anything that needs to be done around here,” said Daquioag
He opened Lumpia Hut Restaurant and Grill in 2007, but the economic downturn has left his family in dire financial straits. “Financially I don’t know, we’re really in trouble right now. We can’t even borrow anywhere else,” said Daquioag. His family has already made cutbacks just to keep their house and business. ” My wife and I used to go a lot of places we don’t even go out to dinner or movies anymore it’s really been a sacrifice,” said Daquioag.
Rod’s extended family shares the duties at the restaurant. So does his wife, who works two jobs herself. He keeps a positive attitude by treating himself to his favorite pastime once a week. “Bowling it’s the only thing that’s happy to me I get out and talk to friends at night,” said Daquioag.
Psychologists have some tips for coping with recession anxiety. Talk to your family, your kids, your spouse, communicate about how you’re feeling. Also find a positive activity that you enjoy. For Rod Daquioag it’s bowling. Continue doing small things that make you happy, they’ll help you through tough times.
If you need someone to talk to on the Central Coast you can call 211 for anonymous 24 hour help. Or you can call the California Crisis Line at 1-800-273-TALK, for help in Spanish call 1-800-SUICIDA.
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Wednesday, April 8th, 2009
Prom and graduation season are almost upon us, and the typical worries of having the right prom date or getting accepted to the right college have already begun in the minds of many teens.
However, because of the recession, many teens are also worried that upon being accepted to their first-choice school or getting the perfect date, they may not be able to afford to go.
Of course, when we hear about plummeting stock prices, falling home values and rising unemployment, we don’t often think about how that will affect prom season or anything else in the lives of young people. Economic worries are usually seen as the domain of adults, with teens left virtually oblivious to how and if it affects them. However, teens are taking note of what’s happening, and they are noticing its effects on their families and their individual lives. According to a recent poll conducted by the Michael Cohen Group, 58 percent of teens are concerned about their family finances and researchers in another survey found that 75 percent of teens say their parents are concerned about the economy.
Still, for many parents, it’s often easier to pretend as though nothing is wrong and leave the economy unaddressed. Unfortunately, this approach may do more harm to teens than good. Research has shown that by leaving obvious financial stressors unaddressed, teens will actually experience more anxiety than if parents talked to them about how plummeting stocks, rising unemployment and the reality that things will likely get worse before they get better are affecting their family.
This increase in anxiety can lead to even more problems. In fact, according to research from Students Against Destructive Decisions (SADD), teens who report feeling stressed most frequently are significantly more likely than their less-stressed peers to say they drink alcohol (40 percent to 29 percent, respectively) or use marijuana (19 percent to 13 percent, respectively).
However, there are things parents can do to make this difficult time more bearable for teens and at the same time bring their families closer together.
First of all, schedule regular family meetings to talk about how the crisis is affecting your family and the people you know. Use this time to allow your teen to voice any concerns or questions he or she may have and to reevaluate financial decisions together.
For example, a changing financial situation may require your family to reevaluate how to pay for college tuition or the car you may have promised to buy for your teen. This would also be a good time to talk about how to save money on things like prom. The average teen spends $600 on prom; because of shrinking incomes, many families may not be able to afford that this year. By including your teen in making these decisions, you can help teach him how to make financial decisions while reducing the stress level by creating a sense of involvement in finding solutions to help the family.
Of course, it is also important for parents to be careful not cause their teen more stress through these conversations. Don’t use these discussions to unload your worries about the economy on your teen, but instead focus on using them as an opportunity to teach while reassuring your teen that he or she will be safe and taken care of no matter what happens.
By sitting down and talking about these things with teens, parents can help to immediately alleviate some of the anxiety and mystery surrounding the threats of the recession while teaching valuable financial lessons that will benefit young people for life.
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Friday, April 3rd, 2009
The Associated Press headlined that his economic recovery plan is “sowing some unease,” and The New York Times has reported he could not assure Americans the economy would grow again by the end of the year.
But as the economy, coupled with economic policies of increased government intervention and spending, threatens to unhinge a presidency that is no more than three months old, Barack Obama has returned to a message of hope at a time to ease fears of his leadership.
“I knew that solving this crisis would not be easy, nor would it happen overnight,” Mr. Obama said during his weekly radio address.
“And we will continue to face difficult days in the months ahead. But I also believe that we will get through this — that if we act swiftly and boldly and responsibly, the United States of America will emerge stronger and more prosperous than it was before.”
With General Motors releasing a report revealing “substantial doubt” in the automaker’s future and the government announcing 651,000 jobs were lost in February, national anxiety has heightened, and talks of an economic depression are becoming more prominent.
According to the Rasmussen Investor’s Index, confidence in the economy has fallen to an all time low as investors are stymied by future predictions of economic gloom. Seventy-five percent of investors responded the economy is getting worse; a twelve point jump since Mr. Obama’s inauguration.
“My administration is committed to doing all that’s necessary to address this crisis and lead us to a better day,” Mr. Obama said in his address.
“That’s why we’re moving forward with an economic agenda that will jump-start job creation, restart lending, relieve responsible homeowners, and address the long-term economic challenges of our time: the cost of health care, our dependence on oil, and the state of our schools.”
But it is the prospect of a government spending spree, in which Washington shows little, if no, fiscal restraint, that have Republicans claiming is the cause of the very economic anxiety Mr. Obama is hoping to alleviate. And the $400-billion-plus spending bill being negotiated in Congress is Exhibit A.
“Let’s call it how it is. First of all, if you make a promise, people expect that you live up to it. And that’s why this administration’s refusal to go in and change this bill is, I think, is a false position,” House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, R-Va., told CNN yesterday.
Republicans have been critical of the spending bill and have chastised the administration for pushing a bill that is loaded with earmarks. They have called for the bill to be scrapped.
And though Republican lawmakers have earmarks in the bill, Mr. Cantor argued the GOP was not being hypocritical because he had asked for a moratorium on the practice.
The White House, however, admitted the bill is “uglier than we’d like,” but are nonetheless going forward with the spending legislation.
“This is like your relief pitcher coming into the ninth inning, and wanting to redo the whole game,” Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag told CNN’s “State of the Union” yesterday. “Next year we’re going to be the starting pitcher, and the game’s going to be completely different.”
Mr. Cantor, though, questioned the credibility of a party that has already broken key promises such as the promise of bipartisanship.
“There is no way anyone could take what Mr. Orszag has said with any credibility. Of course they’re negotiating on this bill in the Senate right now. To say that we would have drawn it differently, but leave $430 billion plus on the table like this? No way. People are expecting this administration to live up to the promises made,” Mr. Cantor said.
But as investor confidence plummets and consumer spending stalls, Mr. Obama is aware of the challenges he faces and urged people not to “stuff money in their mattresses.”
“I don’t think that people should be fearful about our future,” Mr. Obama told The New York Times. “I don’t think that people should suddenly mistrust all of our financial institutions.”
And while the president could not assure Americans the economy would grow again, he pledged to “get all the pillars in place for recovery this year.”
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Tuesday, March 31st, 2009
Bills. Money. Spouse. Your car. Your home. Your kids.
For some people, like Joan Daues, the worrying never ends. “People kept saying to me, ‘Joan, don’t worry about that. Don’t worry about this,’” said Joan Daues.
This former Miss Missouri Senior America suffers from generalized anxiety disorder. Although she was able to control her anxiety to win the crown.
“I’ve got a picture of me crying, and they put my banner on upside down.”
Off stage, though, her anxiety was all-encompassing, and Joan is not alone. One in 10 people over age 60 is diagnosed with an anxiety disorder.
“On average, a person with generalized anxiety disorder spends 40 hours per week occupied with their worries,” said Eric Lenze.
Symptoms include insomnia, fatigue, muscle tension and irritability. The stress can increase the risk of heart attacks and stroke.
“Some brain changes with aging may predispose some people to have those worries be more chronic,” said Eric Lenze.
Until now, seniors diagnosed with anxiety disorders were prescribed sedative drugs that could cause problems like falls and memory loss.
Now, doctors are turning to serotonin reuptake inhibitors,or anti-depressants, to improve symptoms.
After 12 weeks of taking the drug daily, 68 percent of patients said their anxiety was much improved. As for Joan, she worries less.
“I just want to try to be as calm and as easy to live with as possible.”
And is able to concentrate on doing the things she loves.
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Sunday, March 29th, 2009
Late last week, the Financial Times (UK) ran a story about how men are more ‘prone to credit crunch blues’ than women in the same situation. The story is focused on men who think they might lose their jobs, who become more depressed and anxious than women. This assessment comes out of a study from Cambridge University sociologist Brendan Burchell.
The Financial Times reports
This anxiety reflected males’ “macho” belief about “men being the breadwinner”, said Brendan Burchell, the Cambridge sociologist who carried out the research. “Men, unlike women, have few positive ways of defining themselves outside of the workplace between when they leave school and when they retire,” he said.
More from Burchell
The stress and anxiety of people who had become unemployed “bottomed out” after about six months as they adapted to their new circumstances. By contrast, people who had not lost their jobs but thought they might be fired showed steadily worsening mental health for one to two years.
Mr Burchell said: “Given that most economic forecasts predict that the recession will be long with a slow recovery, the results mean that many people – and men in particular – could be entering into a period of prolonged and growing misery.”
Commenting on possible solutions, Mr Burchell stressed the need “to restabilise the City” – adding a mental health angle to the well-rehearsed economic arguments for shoring up the banking system.
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Monday, March 23rd, 2009
Asian stock markets sank Monday, with Japan’s benchmark tumbling to a 26-year closing low, amid deepening anxiety that economies in the U.S. and elsewhere will take far longer to emerge from recession.
Investors continued to shun banks on worries they still haven’t raised enough capital to make up for their colossal losses. Heavyweight bank HSBC, Europe’s biggest, tumbled over 12 percent Hong Kong trade.
Japanese shares, already among Asia’s worst performing this year, crumbled to a 26-year low after the world’s second-largest economy posted a record current account deficit in January. Oil prices, meanwhile, were higher ahead of an anticipated production cut from OPEC.
Recent losses in Asian markets, while somewhat tame compared to those in the West, have still been severe as investors ratchet down their expectation for global growth in the face of abysmal economic data and signs of ongoing struggles at banks and major firms like General Motors.
“Sentiment is terrible,” said Ben Pedley, managing director of LGT Investment Management Ltd. in Hong Kong. “We’re going to be in a funk, not only in Asia, but in the rest of the world for the next year or two.”
Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average fell 87.07 points, or 1.2 percent, to 7,086.03, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 299.38, or 2.5 percent, to 11,622.14.
Weighing on Hong Kong were steep falls in mainland markets, where investors booked some profits after the government didn’t announce new and bigger policies to stimulate the economy at an ongoing legislative meeting. Shanghai’s benchmark plummeted 3.4 percent.
Stock measures in India, Singapore and Taiwan also fell; those in South Korea and Australia gained 1.6 percent and 0.3 percent respectively.
Friday in New York, Wall Street ended a volatile session slightly higher after investors digested news that the world’s largest economy shed 651,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate jumped to a 25 year high of 8.1 percent.
The Dow rose 32.50, or 0.5 percent, to 6,626.94. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.83, or 0.1 percent, to 683.38, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 5.74, or 0.4 percent, to 1,293.85.
Wall Street futures pointed to a lackluster open in the U.S. Dow futures were down 21 points, or 0.3 percent, at 6,653 while S&P500 futures fell 3.7 points, or 0.5 percent, to 684.10.
In Hong Kong, the broader market was also hurt by the downward spiral of HSBC Holdings PLC. The British lender plunged 12.9 percent to HK$37.9 — its lowest point in over a decade — ahead of its offering of new shares to raise capital. Just last year, its stock traded above HK$130.
In Japan, lender Shinsei Bank Ltd. lost 8.8 percent after saying Friday it will issue preferred shares to shore up its capital base.
In the oil market, benchmark crude for April delivery rose 73 cents to $46.25 a barrel in Asia as investors anticipated another OPEC production cut will shrink global supplies.
The dollar rose to 98.46 yen from 98.27 yen. The euro traded at $1.2654 from $1.2672.
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